中国's refining sector to slowdown and reconfigure for energy transition

Structural overcapacity in refining: Slowdown and rationalisation on the cards

Refinery capacity is expected to continue growing in the medium term, but the pace of growth is expected to slow down considerably. Capacity additions are mainly from crude-to-chemicals projects, which aim to maximise naphtha production to meet the increasing petrochemical feedstock demand.

中国增加产能的较慢是由独立（“茶壶”）炼油部门和中国石油需求增长前景较慢的产能的组合驱动的。独立的炼油厂因获得国内零售市场的有限机会而处于不利地位。

Combined with stringent environmental inspections, we expect 600,000 b/d of refinery capacity from the independent sector to be closed between 2019 and 2025.

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所需的精炼配置和产品产量的变化

中国is expected to remain self-sufficient in gasoline and middle-distillates in the medium term, but it will be short of light products – LPG and naphtha. Naphtha yields from refining is further reduced by the huge amount of new reforming capacity in the next few years to support low olefins specification for China VI gasoline.

Therefore, future refinery investments and configurations will need to be aligned to meet these shortages in petrochemical feedstocks rather than transport fuels.

过去，炼油厂的产量已将其加权到中馏出物（喷气燃料和柴油）。中国汽油与柴油需求比率将从2015年的0.75增加到到2035年的1.0。管理中端的盈余并支持汽油与柴油需求比率上升的比率上升，我们预计中国将在精炼中转移收益率迈向光线的系统。

中国粗板的转变与光馏出物的短缺保持一致。由于美国轻油的加工，预计中国原油板的轻原油（API≥38）预计将从2017年的7％增加到2025年的13％。较轻的粗板会导致更高的光剂量产量。在接下来的5 - 6年内，中国的原油板岩降低了6％的光降低的降低剂量的收益率高达1％。

Rui will be speaking at the upcoming中国Energy Week3月20日至22日在北京。