Why US solar tariffs (almost) worked – and why they don’t now

In January 2018, the US government implemented Section 201 solar tariffs on imported cells and modules. After initial successes, our analysis shows that the effectiveness of this approach is now on a decline.

This article is an extract from the report ‘The US solar trade barriers (almost) worked. But they won't any more’.Visit the storeto read it in full.

Solar cell import quota was sufficient in 2019 – but isn’t in 2020

由多层关税和进口配额组成的贸易壁垒在2018年和2019年初生效。2.5GW太阳能电池进口上限足以支持国内太阳能模块制造，并且进口模块的关税足够高，足以使演奏保持场地。

However, the effectiveness of the trade barriers started to erode in 2019 due to strong demand in theUS solar market. We expect that the market will grow by 33% in 2020 and 48% in 2021 from the 2019 level. This will require domestic manufacturers to procure more solar cells from overseas suppliers than the tariff-free import quota supports. They stand to miss out on market opportunities if the quota is not increased to match demand.

Module imports from China are on the rise

One noteworthy trend is that module imports from China have been on the rise since January 2019. That’s despite a combination of Section 201 tariffs, anti-dumping and countervailing duties (ADCVD), and Section 301 tariffs, a.k.a. ‘the China tariffs.’ According to US customs data, China exported 314 MW of solar modules to the US in 2019, and the trend continues in 2020. Over 490 MW of modules were imported from China in Q1 2020, exceeding the imports in all of 2019 by 22%.

Three factors are responsible for this trend:

1. Heightened demand for bifacial solar modules
2. On-again-off-again Section 201 tariffs on bifacial modules
3. The cost competitiveness of bifacial modules made in China.

在2019年的下半年宣布了双面模块第201条关税豁免后，2019年中国模块的95％以上是在下半年进行的。豁免为美国太阳能开发商提供了从中国采购更便宜的模块的机会之窗，但是在过去的12个月中，政策触发器使开发商很难将其机会主义行为转变为常规采购实践。

Read the完整的见识to find out more about the forces influencing procurement strategy.

A double-edged sword: solar tariffs helped manufacturers but hurt developers and consumers

美国太阳能壁垒的有效性取决于您的观点。从国内太阳能制造商的角度来看，该政策部分实现了其目的。它增强了美国的生产能力，并为国内模块奠定了大量市场。但是，如果该政策的目的是保护和发展整个太阳能行业，那么增加的成本和供应限制是适得其反的。

在美国，关税使太阳能模块人为地更加昂贵。成本比主要欧洲主要市场高出79％，比日本高75％，比中国高约85％。没有关税，太阳系价格可能会降低30％。在美国具有高效模块和跟踪器的公用事业规模太阳能的成本低于$1.00/W to build in 2020, two years earlier than the current cost trajectory.

另一方面，如果美国将相同的关税延长了另一轮，到2026年，在美国购买太阳能模块的成本可能是欧洲或加拿大的两倍。安装将远低于当前前景。

Our biannual US solar PV system pricing report includes detailed breakdowns for 2020, with forecasts through 2025. Fill in the form at the top of this page for a preview with sample charts.

What’s next?

目前计划于2022年2月7日淘汰2012年第201条关税。美国联邦政府将确定接下来会发生什么。要了解有关可能结果的更多信息，请访问商店以完整阅读此见解。